tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-90177418433829032162024-03-05T14:50:49.469-08:00rugaba-agabaRugaba Agabahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13424598396277277526noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9017741843382903216.post-31686649558612140692020-05-03T03:13:00.002-07:002020-05-07T05:16:18.250-07:00Impact of COVID19 on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Early Signs in Uganda.<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 20.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Impact of COVID19 on Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs): Early Signs in Uganda.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It was refreshing to read the
call to action made by Her Excellency Erna Solberg (Prime Minister of Norway)
and His Excellency Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo (President of the Republic of
Ghana) who are both Co-chair of the UN Secretary-General’s SDG Advocates on the
need to accelerate and deepen global efforts during this Decade of Action to
‘recover better’, and build a healthier, safer, fairer and a more prosperous
world especially in the post-Covid19 era. </span><a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2020/04/coronavirus-sdgs-more-relevant-than-ever-before/"><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif;">https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2020/04/coronavirus-sdgs-more-relevant-than-ever-before/</span></a><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The insights offered in the
above blog largely resonate with many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa like
Uganda. Owing to the Covid19 pandemic, Uganda has revised down its GDP growth
to 3.8% for the financial year 2019/2020 from the pre-pandemic figure of 6%.,
according to the Ministry of Finance's Performance of the Economy Report for March 2020. This comes
on the back-drop of a month long lock-down, curfews, travel restrictions and
closed borders (except for trade cargo and merchandise). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Prime Minister Erna and
President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo in their article talk of prevalence of poverty,
weak health systems and lack of cooperation which we have seen manifest at
regional level here in East Africa. Whereas the East African Community countries
namely Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda imposed lock-down and travel restrictions, Tanzania
the second largest economy in the East African region did not take similar
stringent measures in its fight against Covid19 pandemic. Tanzania now accounts
for more than half of Covid19 cases in the region. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of Uganda’s 83 confirmed cases since March
2020, 25 of these are cargo transporters from Kenya and Tanzania. This indeed
clearly calls for the shared and integrated efforts as proposed by the Prime
Minister Erna and President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo. We cannot fight the
pandemic in isolation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Prime Minister Erna and
President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo also highlight the aspect of countries having
to reset their priorities, and reallocate resources to deal with the pandemic. Uganda’s
government allocated a supplementary budget of Ugx 284 billion ($75million)
towards fighting the pandemic in March 2020. </span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/uganda-seeks-75-million-in-supplementary-budget-on-covid-19"><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/uganda-seeks-75-million-in-supplementary-budget-on-covid-19</span></a><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> .The
emergency budget funding was allocated to largely the Health sector to fight
covid19 and also to the Security and Local Administration sectors to implement
lock-down restrictions and other administrative activities in the fight against
Covid19 at local government level. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the absence of a pandemic,
these resources would have gone to much need development expenditures in the
education and health sectors. The emergency/ supplementary funding accounts for
more than 10% of the Uganda’s health budget for the Financial year 2019/2020.
This has both short term and medium term impacts on our fiscal position and
also implementation of key initiatives towards the SDGs. Additionally, the
slowdown in the economy shall affect the country as it implements infrastructure
projects in the energy and transport sector that are crucial for SDG7
(Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG9 (Industry, Innovation and
Infrastructure). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the subsequent periods, it
shall be evident the extent and scale of impact of Covid19 pandemic on
renewable energy projects that are largely financed by private capital and or through
multilateral cooperation frameworks. There are potential delays on attaining
financial close for some of these energy projects and also potential project
risks associated with extensions of time and additional costs. This is bound to
affect attainment of targets under the SDG7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) in
Uganda in the short and medium term. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Uganda has also faced a unique triple
challenge along with the Covid19 pandemic. It has also been hit by locust invasion
in February 2020 and floods/ heavy rainfall largely attributable to climate
change. The rainy season has been longer and the rains have been more intense
thus rising water levels in the Lake Victoria Basin that have affected major
infrastructure like dams, hydropower plants and bridges. The floods and heavy
rains have also affected local communities posing risk on hygiene and
sanitation. The locusts have destabilized food security and the livelihood of
communities mainly in the East and North of Uganda. These three (Covid19
pandemic, locusts and floods) shall have a negative impact on attainment of a
wide range of Sustainable Development Goals including but not limited to SDG1
(No Poverty) and SDG2(Zero Hunger) in the short and medium term. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Thus the call
made by</span> <span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Prime
Minister Erna and President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo to fight against
poverty, hunger and climate change is indeed timely and resonates with
countries like Uganda in the post-Covid19 agenda. We hope the UN
Secretary-General’s SDG Advocates shall continue to rally players across the
board to take bold actions on implementing the SDGs as part of the recovery of
the global economy and towards a safer, fairer and more prosperous world. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Author:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Nicholas
Agaba Rugaba (REng)<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Civil
Engineer and Renewable Energy Professional (Dams and Hydro Power), Uganda. <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Twitter:
@RugabaAgaba<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Co-Author.
<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ruth
Ashley Nansubuga<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "garamond" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br />Rugaba Agabahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13424598396277277526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9017741843382903216.post-88746017781331117742017-07-04T01:10:00.003-07:002017-07-04T01:10:44.797-07:00On Uganda’s Electricity Supply and Economy.<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Dr.
Fred K Muhumuza’s Open Letter to the President on “Uganda’s weak and sick
economy” in the Daily Monitor of Friday 23<sup>rd</sup> June 2017 highlighted
the structural challenges related to Uganda’s recent slow economic growth and
low demand for electricity. (http://www.monitor.co.ug/OpEd/Editorial/Letter-to-President--The-economy-is-actually-weak-and-quite-sick/689360-3983062-6dmq0iz/index.html) </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I will not purport to be a spokesperson or
representative of the President’s Office, but since the letter was an open one,
I felt I should add my two cents to the debate on Uganda’s electricity supply
and economy at large. Does Uganda have excess capacity today? No. Total available
capacity of generation plants in Uganda was 715MW in 2015 according to the <b><i>Performance
Report of the Electricity Regulatory Authority for 2010 – 2015</i></b>. This
available capacity comprises 250MW Bujagali, 265MW Nalubale/Kira Complex and
many other licensed independent power producers, small hydro projects e.g 3.5MW
WENRECO in West Nile. Apart from the 10MW solar project in Soroti that was
commissioned late last year, there isn’t a substantial amount of generation
capacity that has been commissioned in the last 24 months. Uganda’s total
available capacity is slightly over 750MW. So do we have excess capacity today?
No, we don’t. Shall we have excess capacity in the next one or two years when
Isimba and Karuma projects are fully commissioned? I guess that is the issue Dr
Fred Muhumuza is raising. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">For starters, he posits that we are paying a high
opportunity cost for investment in these energy projects. Opportunity cost is
the alternative forgone when a choice is a made. If i buy a bottle of beer at
Ugx 5,000, the alternative I have foregone is a basket of mangoes or a pack of
maize seed, which i could have bought with the same Ugx 5,000. So the question
that economists need to help us answer is, the funds invested in the energy
projects, if invested in another venture, for example buying meals and milk for
all school children in public schools, would Uganda earn better returns on
investments and higher multiplier effects compared to investment in Isimba HPP
and Karuma HPP? Or to put it clearly, would we prefer government stimulus
spending to be on public capital assets like energy projects or on re-current
budget expenditure that may create aggregate demand for imports not necessarily
locally produced goods? I believe the public infrastructure investment option
is a better deal in the medium and long term term. I gather Keynesians
(followers of John Maynard Keynes, the famed grandfather of macroeconomics)
also believe that when governments choose to spend to stimulate the economy,
the efficiency of allocation of these resources in the short term is not the
main agenda. The main issue is to get the economy moving, and efficiency is
sorted out in the medium and long term. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The public investment in energy
projects has also had strong local content linkages for example the bulk
purchases of cement on the local market, transportation and logistics contracts,
employment of skilled and semi-skilled personnel on construction works etc. Can
we do more as far as local content is concerned? Yes we can. The <b><i>Buy
Uganda and Build Uganda</i></b> strategy and the implementation of the Local Content
Policy can only take us to better places. In this regard, I am convinced that
public infrastructure investment is bound to improve productivity and
efficiency in the wider economy in the medium and long term despite the minimal
turbulence in the short term. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Where
will the demand for this electricity come from? Some may ask. Uganda’s
population is surging. One million babies are born in Uganda every year, in
tandem with our 3% annual population growth rate. Total population is projected
to rise to 50 million and 100 million in 2020 and 2050 respectively. This
creates more demand for food, medical care, educational services, public
facilities etc. This demand is a strong incentive for private firms (milk
processors, maize millers, commodity factories etc.) and traders to produce
more, increase their production capacity, increase their trade stocks etc. to
meet this ever growing demand for milk, cereal, pampers, clothing, corn, shelter,
water etc. All these private firms and traders need and or will need more
electricity to expand their production capacity to meet production targets, in
line with population growth and increased demand. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The mining industry,
industrial parks and regional power pools are strong potential demand centers
for this electricity. For perspective, 183MW (Mega Watts) is equivalent to 183
million watts. A watt is a unit of power. The bulb in your bedroom is rated in
watts, indicating for example 30 watts or 100 watts. If you run the 183MW Isimba
HPP you should be able to switch on 4 million bulbs/lights each rated below 50
watts. Do we believe in the next decade, we won’t have enough households,
business premises, street lights, offices etc. to consume this electricity? UMEME,
the electricity distribution company indicated 19% growth in customer numbers
for FY 2016. The projection is that they will cross the 1,000,000 customers
mark in 2017. Year on year growth was 13% in 2014. The demand for electricity
is there, and seems to be growing. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The other key issue around energy projects
is their turnaround time! How long, on average, does it take to deliver an infrastructure
project, from pre-feasibility, through feasibility and design stages, to
construction and commissioning? Industry practice is that depending on size and
complexity, this ranges from 4 to 10 years!
This is premised on the assumption that the financing is readily
available and the contracting firms are doing an excellent job! With this
potential electricity demand, it is only prudent that government runs ahead of
the pack, to invest massively in energy and other infrastructure projects. Failure
to do so, would indeed create fertile ground for the economy to get sick and
weak in the medium and long term. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Agaba Rugaba<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Twitter; RugabaAgaba<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b></div>
Rugaba Agabahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13424598396277277526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9017741843382903216.post-43583979665438389622017-07-04T01:07:00.001-07:002017-07-04T01:07:38.239-07:00On Timothy Kalyegira and US Mission to Uganda's "A Report to the Ugandan People"<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Timothly Kalyegira’s column in
the Sunday Monitor of 18<sup>th</sup> June 2017 (http://www.monitor.co.ug/Magazines/PeoplePower/-US-embassyUgandans-Chinese-/689844-3974784-kecnc5/index.html)drew my attention to the
recently released “<b>Report to the Ugandan
People”</b> by the US Embassy in Kampala. Whereas Timothy didn’t not have many
charitable things to say about Ugandans (the intended receipts of the report),
I agree with him that the report was well structured, clutter less, incisive
and colorful. It makes for easy reading and understanding on what the U.S
government supported programs are up to in Uganda. </div>
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A few highlights from the
report (https://ug.usembassy.gov/our-relationship/report-to-the-ugandan-people/)that covers their last fiscal year (from October 2015 to September
2016), the US government and associated agencies spent $850 million on five key
focus areas namely Health, Stability, Prosperity, Justice and Democracy, and
Education. Health, at slightly over $500m took the lion’s share, accounting for
approximately 60% of the total spend. Stability (which covers defense spending,
peace initiatives, refugee programs etc.) came second with $280m accounting for
33% of total spend. The other three focus areas shared the remaining 7% of the
total spend in the fiscal year. Other key nuggets in the report are that average
age in Uganda is now 14 years, implying that if you sum up all the ages of the
35 million Ugandans and divide this sum by the total population, you get 14
years! This reinforces our position as the country with the youngest population
in the world. 80% of our population is below 18 years, and total population is
projected to rise to 50 million and 100 million in 2020 and 2050 respectively. <o:p></o:p></div>
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I am not tempted, like my friend
Timothy to suggest that our average Ugandan is naïve and clueless, consigned to
a life of in-ability to be competitive in the Ugandan economy and the global
scene at large. The Ugandan population, and by extension the Uganda government
have the right ingredients at hand and or in the pipeline, to harness our
potential for full scale production and economic activity to raise millions out
of poverty and provide quality social services like health and education. There
are two avenues that I believe the US Mission in Uganda and its partner’s may
need to engage in and or support in the short and medium term as they work in partnership
with the Uganda government to ensure a better and brighter future for all Ugandans.<o:p></o:p></div>
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As noted in the “Report to the
Ugandan People”, over 70% of the Ugandan population rely on agriculture for
income and food. It is also well known that the majority of these are small
holder farmers on small acreage of land, with minimal or no mechanized equipment
or technology to boost agriculture production. Whereas the wheat farmer in Kansas,
America has access to a futures market, agricultural subsidies, machinery, fertilizer,
etc. to boost productivity and quality in their farming enterprise, the average
Ugandan farmer is up against the vagaries of climate change, poor farm inputs,
high labor and technology costs etc. in their attempt to graduate from subsistence
farming to commercial farming. I believe that the US Mission in Uganda can
share best practices of the Futures Markets/ Commodity Exchange Markets so that
local farmers have supply contracts and are guaranteed good prices for their
produce in the short and medium term. This should be a good incentive for local
banks and insurance firms to offer credit and insurance products to farmers to
boost production. The warehousing initiative, as highlighted in the report is a
good place to start. Could it be possible for the US government program to
underwrite some private firms to invest in large warehousing facilities at
district level, as a first step to decentralized commodities trading and
futures market? I believe this would go a long way in building the foundation
for all-inclusive economic growth. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p> </o:p><span style="text-align: justify;">The second proposition is on
Energy. The Report highlights some of the energy efficiency initiatives
currently undertaken by </span><b style="text-align: justify;"><i>Power Africa</i></b><span style="text-align: justify;"> including hybrid solar-diesel
power project in Kalangala. There is a multitude of opportunities and projects
in the energy sector that would undoubtedly enhance access to electricity and
value addition across the country. Renewable energy projects like solar and
wind at district level targeting health and education facilities would go a
long way in improving service delivery at these social facilities. Small/ mini
hydro projects and mini-grids targeting production zones, upcountry industrial
zones, commodity processing plants, emerging urban centers etc. have potential
for strong multiplier effects across the economy. Power Africa may have to cast
its net wider in partnering with private developers and government agencies in
harnessing the opportunities for energy supply, distribution and access in
Uganda. It is evident that support to both the energy and agricultural sectors
, coupled with Government of Uganda’s massive investment in public
infrastructure, will yield dividends for the wider population, boost incomes
and competitiveness on the regional markets. May be then, US Mission’s “</span><b style="text-align: justify;">Report to the Ugandan People”</b><span style="text-align: justify;"> will
highlight success stories that will be pleasant reading for my friend Timothy
Kalyegira.</span></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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http://www.monitor.co.ug/OpEd/Editorial/Investment-in--agriculture--energy-will-boost-incomes/689360-3983066-13yy774z/index.html</div>
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Twitter - @RugabaAgaba<o:p></o:p></div>
Rugaba Agabahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13424598396277277526noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9017741843382903216.post-31971674225072824292014-06-10T09:31:00.000-07:002014-06-10T09:31:11.139-07:00STATE OF THE NATION ADDRESS 2014; PRESIDENT MUSEVENI WAS SPOT ON.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The aftermath of this year’s
State of Nation Address has been characterized by mixed reactions and reviews across
the political and social divide. Most of the reviews have been scathing and
largely dismissive of the President’s speech as mere rhetoric that punctuated
the annual political “ritual”. I think this <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">State of the Nation Address</i></b>
was actually spot on, with fundamental issues and statistics brought to the
fore by the President. The address was largely stimulating and insightful on
the salient issues in our economy.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg320vSvTSTKjOsokdza_C83i0zf4Ga6iVUnWcK3tCDon2SltVmfdpyraqyficYMKCcWGVfznSbPkFNiXoymz2umV0Yci5pWcgDDfTUqEK24jWpSWlyYguD6bhT-jA1IzIkKZPt-QODG_M/s1600/M7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg320vSvTSTKjOsokdza_C83i0zf4Ga6iVUnWcK3tCDon2SltVmfdpyraqyficYMKCcWGVfznSbPkFNiXoymz2umV0Yci5pWcgDDfTUqEK24jWpSWlyYguD6bhT-jA1IzIkKZPt-QODG_M/s1600/M7.jpg" /></a></div>
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For starters, during last year’s
address, President Museveni tackled the ten (10) bottlenecks to social
transformation for example developing human development through education and
health, developing infrastructure, developing the private sector, modernizing
agriculture, regional integration etc. In this year’s address, he did a
rejoinder to last year’s speech and comprehensively addressed the key sectors
of the economy that are key to wealth and jobs creation i.e. agriculture,
services, ICT, industry and manufacturing. The context given to the
agricultural sector was spot on. The issues of markets, quality, value and
returns on investment are integral to our agricultural sector and I think it
was insightful to contextualize these issues in regard to both global demand and
regional markets for our agricultural produce.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The total headcount/ employment
numbers per sector i.e. 841,704 and 2,684,290 for the industrial and service
sectors respectively was also an insightful nugget. Youth unemployment
continues to be a big challenge in our economy! For long, we have been seeking the
head count per sector and the number of jobs created per year. It will be
interesting to see the growth in the head count in the next financial year
since we now have some benchmark figures for comparative purposes. This is
integral to designing the best policies and programs that support inclusive
economic growth i.e. GDP growth that creates both jobs and wealth for the wider
population.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY_YSHuYW1tg7A5WPrWBL0O3wbuVvvbHHlLZ72LHRIxB7NdUhjKmjj1sBKnUw-TFP1Hb3utPyf2UVZkus_KVeZidCjeXxTLmtP_TvhElbKIQIYx3QuvTR3SvH-BKnRoNJHcuGg8rFGE24/s1600/NAADs+Woman.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY_YSHuYW1tg7A5WPrWBL0O3wbuVvvbHHlLZ72LHRIxB7NdUhjKmjj1sBKnUw-TFP1Hb3utPyf2UVZkus_KVeZidCjeXxTLmtP_TvhElbKIQIYx3QuvTR3SvH-BKnRoNJHcuGg8rFGE24/s1600/NAADs+Woman.jpg" height="153" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The other key insight was the
number of agricultural inputs e.g. seedlings distributed to households that are
engaged in agriculture (68% of total households as per 2002 Census). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is fundamental since many a household
lack the basic agricultural inputs and start-up capital to engage in commercial
farming. This thus calls for the need to re-organise NAADs so as to reinforce
these efforts to drive both profitability and efficiency in the agricultural
sector.</div>
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Perhaps the most insightful
statistic from the address is the reduction in poverty from 24.5% in 2009/2010
to 19.7% in 2012/2013! For starters, the Ministry of Finance in the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Poverty
Status Report May 2012</i></b> defines poverty as a situation where one can’t
afford to buy and consume food worth 3,000 calories per day based on the CPI
food basket. That implies that for a household of five, the daily consumption
would be 15,000 calories of food per day. But the same report indicates that a
sizeable percentage of Ugandans who are not necessarily poor are vulnerable to
falling back below the poverty line in case of unemployment, poor harvests, job
loss, reduced incomes or challenging economic conditions. The economy has
performed below expectation for the last 3 or so years. It would also be
interesting to establish the correlation between the 5% average economic growth
rate per annum for the last 5 years and the 5% fall in poverty levels of the 5
year period! It is apparent that the population growth seems to be eating into
the GDP growth that would buttress poverty reduction and wealth creation. It is
in this context that the President’s emphasis on building sustainable agricultural
enterprises for both wealth and job creation is key for both the short and long
term.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Agaba Rugaba</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Civil Engineer and Socio-Economic
Commentator</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Twitter; @RugabaAgaba</div>
Rugaba Agabahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13424598396277277526noreply@blogger.com0